Each year, Ramadan and Eid Ul-Fitr serve as critical periods for Indonesia’s domestic economy. The weeks leading up to and following these religious observances have traditionally driven a surge in consumption, mobility, and overall economic activity. However, in 2025, the season unfolded in a way that revealed not only a shift in consumer behavior, but also the underlying fragility of the national economy.

The Ministry of Transportation recorded approximately 146 million people participating in the annual mudik homecoming tradition, representing a 24 percent decrease compared to the 193 million recorded in 2024. While mudik remains a deeply rooted social and cultural custom, the significant reduction in participation this year indicates rising financial caution and shifting household priorities.

Traffic volume data from PT Jasa Marga supports this picture. The company reported that 1.7 million vehicles left Greater Jakarta during the 10-day window prior to Eid. Although this figure shows a slight 0.4 percent increase from the same period in 2024, it signals stagnation in growth, especially when viewed against the context of government incentives such as toll road discounts.

Despite an overall decrease in mobility, certain public transportation sectors saw moderate gains. Air travel increased by 12 percent, with 6.19 million passengers recorded during the Eid period. This was facilitated in part by government-mandated airfare discounts of 13 to 14 percent and the availability of 404 operational aircraft. However, the increase in passenger volume did not necessarily translate to profitability for airlines. Aviation operators continued to face pressure from rising operational costs and a general decline in consumer purchasing power, resulting in an environment where demand did not fully compensate for the cost burden.

The rail sector also recorded growth. PT Kereta Api Indonesia (KAI) served 1.66 million passengers between March 21 and 29, representing a 9.1 percent increase year-on-year. Additionally, the Jakarta–Bandung high-speed rail service, Whoosh, transported more than 210,000 passengers during the Eid holiday, demonstrating strong public interest in this relatively new transport option. Ferry transport, managed by ASDP, was estimated to serve around 3 million passengers nationwide, supported by a deployment of 67 vessels to accommodate peak-season traffic.

Private transportation remained dominant, with recent surveys indicating that 30 percent of travelers relied on personal cars, 24 percent used motorcycles, and 13 percent utilized buses to reach their destinations. These figures highlight the continued importance of road-based mobility and individual transport choices, particularly as financial uncertainty prompts travelers to seek lower-cost options.

In terms of regional activity, Central and East Java remained the most popular destinations for mudik. However, West Java experienced a visible drop in domestic tourism, with hotel operators and local businesses reporting lower foot traffic and reduced revenues. In Jakarta, where many residents had traveled out of the city, urban attractions such as Taman Mini Indonesia Indah (TMII), Ragunan Zoo, Kota Tua, and Ancol still drew substantial numbers of visitors, particularly among residents and non-mudik travelers. The Jakarta Transportation Agency responded with crowd management strategies to handle the influx.

Consumer spending during the Eid period declined notably. According to the Indonesian Chamber of Commerce and Industry (KADIN), total monetary circulation reached approximately Rp 137.97 trillion or USD 8.33 billion, reflecting a 12.3 percent decline from the Rp 157.3 trillion reported in 2024. This contraction can be attributed to several overlapping challenges, including inflation, currency depreciation, and labor market disruptions. Particularly concerning is the weakening of Indonesia’s middle class, which has shrunk by an estimated 20 percent over the past six years—undermining the spending power that typically drives holiday-related consumption.

The business impact was uneven across sectors. While the transportation sector experienced selective gains, key consumer-facing industries such as retail, FMCG, and hospitality saw weaker-than-expected performance. Many businesses that had anticipated a Ramadan and Eid sales uplift instead faced underwhelming demand. In regions such as West Java, retailers and hotel operators reported a noticeable decline in seasonal earnings. This trend suggests that even culturally and economically significant holidays may no longer guarantee short-term recovery under current conditions.

Looking ahead to the second quarter of 2025, the outlook remains cautious. Historically, many businesses have approached Q2 with optimism, often stating “we’ll wait until after Ramadan” as a marker for renewed momentum. However, projections for Ramadan spending this year tell a more restrained story. According to data from Red Strategy Consultant, total consumer spending during the 2025 Ramadan season grew by only 5 to 7 percent—down from 9 to 12 percent growth in recent years. This slowdown reinforces the notion that affordability, rather than festive tradition, is now the dominant influence on consumer behavior.

To support consumption, the government introduced several policy measures during the Ramadan–Eid window. These included airfare and toll road discounts, direct cash transfers to low-income households, tax incentives for labor-intensive industries, and online shopping initiatives such as Harbolnas. While these efforts provided short-term relief and helped stimulate targeted spending, they were largely corrective rather than transformative. Without more enduring policy support and economic reforms, these seasonal interventions are unlikely to reverse deeper structural challenges.
 

In summary, the patterns observed during Eid Ul-Fitr 2025 reveal more than a temporary dip in movement or spending. They reflect an economy in transition—one where long-held assumptions about seasonal consumption are being redefined by financial pressures, shifting demographics, and changing consumer sentiment. As Indonesia progresses through the next quarter, both policymakers and the private sector will need to re-evaluate how they interpret holiday trends and what they signal about the broader economic landscape.
 

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