Indonesia’s Tightening Grip on Natural Resource Export Proceeds: 
Policy Objectives, Market Risks, and the Road Ahead

Indonesia’s government is preparing a new tightening phase of its Devisa Hasil Ekspor Sumber Daya Alam (DHE SDA) policy as it seeks to strengthen foreign-exchange (FX) reserves and stabilise the rupiah amid persistent capital outflows. Beginning 1 January 2026, many natural-resource exporters will be required to place 100% of their export proceeds exclusively in special accounts at state-owned banks (Himbara) for 12 months, alongside a new cap allowing conversion into rupiah of only up to 50%. The upcoming move represents a significant escalation from earlier rules and reflects growing frustration within the government over the limited effectiveness of previous iterations.

 

The DHE framework was first strengthened in 2023 and further revised under Government Regulation (PP) No. 8/2025 in March 2025, which extended the mandatory retention period for non-oil and gas exporters from three months to one year and raised the retention ratio to 100%. The policy aimed to boost reserves by an estimated US$80 billion in 2025. However, this target has fallen short. By September 2025, Indonesia’s foreign-exchange reserves had declined to US$148.7 billion from US$150.7 billion in August, reflecting continued external debt servicing and Bank Indonesia intervention to stabilise the rupiah.

 

Structural weaknesses have constrained the policy’s effectiveness. Much of the retained forex ultimately flows back offshore to service foreign-currency liabilities, meaning the accumulation of reserves has been transient. Exporters have also relied on technically permissible mechanisms—such as currency conversion, transfers via smaller banks, and short-term swaps—to move funds back overseas. While BI reports formal compliance above 95%, policymakers acknowledge that these legal loopholes have diluted the policy’s macroeconomic impact.

 

The January 2026 tightening is designed explicitly to close these gaps. By centralising deposits at Himbara and restricting conversion, authorities aim to ensure that export earnings contribute more directly to domestic FX liquidity. Finance Minister Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa has framed the shift as necessary to stabilise onshore dollar supply and strengthen oversight, even signalling that state-bank management could be replaced if the revised system fails to deliver results. The government is also preparing FX-denominated government bonds as an alternative onshore placement instrument, potentially involving the state asset fund Danantara.

 

Despite these measures, market concerns remain significant. Private banks warn of a potential FX liquidity squeeze as deposits are forced out of their balance sheets into state lenders. Given that private banks currently hold a large share of FX deposits and have invested heavily in FX infrastructure, a sudden reallocation risks disrupting intermediation, credit provision, and operational capacity.  

 

BCA chief economist David Sumual warns that requiring 100% of export proceeds to be placed in Himbara could be perceived as an “anti-market” signal and a form of tighter de facto foreign-exchange controls, potentially weakening investor confidence in Indonesia’s financial openness. Business groups also caution that if domestic placement costs become uncompetitive with offshore markets, Indonesia’s export competitiveness could be eroded.

From the exporters’ perspective, the 12-month retention period and placement restrictions impose real financial constraints. Many exporters operate on dollar-denominated balance sheets and rely on offshore trade finance with lower interest rates. Limited access to FX liquidity reduces flexibility in cash-flow management, hedging, and servicing external obligations. Exporters have therefore pushed for shorter lock-up periods, lower retention ratios, and access to FX-denominated government bonds as alternative instruments. Apindo and Bank Syariah Indonesia have both described the revised regime as significantly tighter and stress the need for competitive interest rates.

 

Industry associations signal conditional acceptance. The Indonesian Coal Mining Association (APBI) and the Palm Oil Association (Gapki) support the ability to convert FX into rupiah for daily operations but warn of commodity price volatility, working-capital strain, and administrative burdens. Meanwhile, GPEI urges a phased, evidence-based approach before further regulatory tightening.

 

Indonesia’s evolving DHE SDA regime reflects a broader shift toward tighter state control over strategic FX flows and a more nationalistic approach to macro-financial management. In the short term, stricter placement rules could help stabilise onshore dollar supply and support rupiah confidence if market reactions remain contained. However, the longer-term trade-off is clear: excessive financial centralisation risks weakening banking-sector competition, raising funding costs, and undermining investor confidence.


The revised DHE framework will structurally shift foreign-currency liquidity toward state-owned banks (Himbara), strengthening their funding base and role in government-linked financing. In contrast, private banks risk tighter dollar liquidity, weaker trade-finance activity, and erosion of fee-based FX income as export proceeds migrate out of their balance sheets. For exporters—particularly in mining, energy, and large-scale plantations—the 12-month retention requirement reduces cash-flow flexibility, complicates FX risk management, and may lift funding costs at the margin, given their heavy reliance on dollar-denominated operations and offshore financing. Smaller exporters below the USD 250,000 threshold remain largely insulated.


For foreign and portfolio investors, the tightening adds to concerns over implicit capital controls and financial centralisation. While profit repatriation is not formally restricted, the signal effect raises perceived regulatory risk—especially for investors in private banks, trade finance, and resource-linked sectors. Any deterioration in confidence could trigger renewed capital outflows, offsetting the short-term FX support the policy seeks to generate and reinforcing the delicate balance between currency stability and investment competitiveness.

 

 

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ECONOMY

December 11, 2025

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